NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY

Last: 5099.85, up 56.85 points

On the last trading day, NIFTY rose 56.85 points to close the day at 5099.85. Major positive contribution came from TATASTEEL, TATAMOTORS and HDFCBANK while major losers were PNB and SBIN.

Despite the rise, NIFTY maintains negative trend on short and long term basis. The moving average setup is indicating that the Index will enter into an uptrend only after crossing 5200 level on the closing basis. Till that time we advice investors to maintain a sell on rise stance. 

AMBUJACEM is showing overbought reading on the Trend Score table. The stock has risen 9% in one week and 28% in eight weeks. We believe time is ripe for swing traders to book gains as the stock is likely to enter into a sideways range to consolidate gains.  

As shown on the Trend Score table, KOTAKBANK, PNB, SAIL, SBIN and WIPRO are in the oversold territory as the 14 day RSI is showing readings below 30. Among all the stocks mentioned above, we like KOTAKBANK as the stock is showing a positive Trend Score while rest of the stocks are in the sell mode. See charts below.

  Dead cat bounce is likely in PNB, SAIL, SBIN and WIPRO while KOTAKBANK, after showing some sideways action around current levels, will resume its dominant uptrend. Swing traders are advised to gradually accumulate all these stocks on the weakness with a view to book profits on the rise. 

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5128.20, up 10.25 points)

After losing 125 points in two trading days, the NIFTY went up 10.25 points to close the day at 5128. Major positive contribution came from HINDUNILVR. The stock surged 7.51% after posting better than expected results. The short term trend of the market is down while medium and long term trend remains up.

Today, we expect the Index to remain under pressure and challenge its near term support at 5100. Breach of this support on the downside will open the way for the NIFTY to test 5050. Major resistance is placed at 5150.

Our top picks for the day are ACC, HCLTECH, HINDUNILVR, ONGC and RANBAXY. Initiate a buy on dips strategy in the above mentioned stocks. Please place a protective stoploss at 2% below the purchase price.

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5117.95, down 87.15 points)

NIFTY entered into a short term sell mode after it closed below 2 weeks moving average and 14 day RSI fell below 50. Now the road is open for the Index to dig deeper and test 5100 and 5050 level. Major resistance levels are 5200 and 5250.

BHARTIARTL, DLF, GAIL and DLF are looking weak and we recommend selling on the uptick while CIPLA and DRREDDY are worth nibbling on dips.

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5205.10, down 37.60 points)

NIFTY’s failure to cross 5250 resistance took its toll as the Index fell 37.60 point to close the day at 5205. NIFTY will confirm a short term downward tend if it closes below 5200 today as the two weeks moving average is placed at 5230 and 14 day RSI is at 51. However, the long and medium term trend remains up.

Overnight weakness will likely to continue today as the Index will face selling pressure around 5225 resistance while a decline below 5200 will open the way for it to test 5150 level. Traders and investors are advised to adopt a buy on dips strategy.

Trading Strategy: Buy on dips in stocks with positive Trend Score and sell on rise in stocks with negative Trend Score. Keep a close watch on the "Trend Score Change" column to get the idea which way the Trend Score is heading (Its getting better or worse). 

TATAMOTORS

TATAMOTORS (Last: Rs 224.80, up Rs 3.20)

Sell on all three counts (Long, medium and short term basis)

The stock is generating a long term down trend signal as the 2 weeks moving average closed below 52 weeks moving average today. As you can on the chart, the downward trend was orderly in nature as it signaled the correction at Rs 296 and at Rs 261 the system generated the uptrend reversal flag. (see the flags on the chart above).

We expect TATAMOTORS to move down going forward, however, since the stock has declined considerably in the recent past, it may exhibit a choppy trading pattern or generate small time corrective reversal in prices to neutralize the oversold momentum indicators.

Keeping that in mind, we recommend long term investors to use the firmness in prices as an opportunity to exit. Traders are advised to trade the stock on the short side only till we see reversal in moving average setup.

The major resistance levels are Rs 240 and Rs 250. Major support prices are Rs 200 and Rs 170.

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5242.70, up 26.40 points)

NIFTY ended the day in the positive territory mainly on the back of short covering in IT, Oil and Gas and Metal sector stocks. Banks, Auto and FMCG lagged the Index. The trending profile of NIFTY is up, however, the lack of momentum on upside can quickly change the picture as the Index is hovering a whisker above its 2 weeks moving average.

In our view, a lot is dependant on Index’s ability to cross 5250-5270 resistance level. If this happens, expect 5300 and beyond otherwise NIFTY will either drift in a range of 5170-5250 level till it clears its intentions.

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5216.30, up 23.45 points)

After five negative closes in a row, NIFTY managed to finish the day in the positive territory. Despite the rise, the short term trending picture is still under cloud as the Index is trading below its 2 weeks moving average (5232) and RSI is just hanging above the 50 line. However, the Index is maintaining the uptrend on medium and long term basis.

  

Today, we expect the Index to move higher and challenge its five days old highs at 5267. We may see this uptrend extending to 5300 if NIFTY manages to fill the gap between 5267 and 5300 level (See the Trend Score Table below)

NIFTY Trend Score

NIFTY (Last: 5192.85, down 4.40 points)

Sulking downtrend continues as the NIFTY shed 4 points to close another day below 5200 support. The long and medium term trend of NIFTY is up, however, the Index is about to enter into a short term downtrend. In such a scenario, we expect the Index to test its near term support prices at 5150 and 5080. Major resistance levels are 5260 and 5300. We maintain our positive stance on the Index and recommend going long on the weakness.

In our universe, 31 out of 55 stocks are in the long term uptrend, out of which 2 stocks are showing uptrend reversing pattern namely HCLTECH and TATAMOTORS. Today, 24 stocks are showing negative trend on the long term basis out of which 5 stocks are showing downtrend reversing pattern. These stocks are BANKBARODA, BHARTIARTL, GAIL, MARUTI and PNB. Please see the Trend Score table below.

 Trading strategy: Sell on rise in stocks with negative Trend Score. Buy on dips in the stock with positive Trend Score. Also keep a close watch on the “Trend Score Change” column to get a clue on the velocity the trend. To understand better please read the “Trend Score Guide”. (click to download)